Integrated assessment of land-use and hydrology for sustainable development of the Amazon under changing climate (SSP)

Eunjee Lee, Fabio Farinosi, Fabio Pereira and Mauricio Arias

This project investigates the impacts of land-cover change and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon and its periphery. As a team, we built an integrated modeling framework that enables us to examine the complex links of biosphere-atmosphere interactions (ED and EDBRAMS models), water flow through the landscape (MGB-IPH model), and hydropower generation (ResSIM and MSUI models). Different states of the Amazonian water cycle are being studied with a series of land-cover and climate change scenarios in order to determine what levels of deforestation and precipitation can sustain the hydropower generation, in particular, of the Tapajós River basin. This integrated assessment will provide valuable insights to policy makers regarding the sustainable development of the Amazonia over the coming century.

This project is an initiative of the Sustainability Science Program at the Harvard Kennedy School and it is funded by Italy’s Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea.